Breve guida a come valutare i programmi elettorali in 4 passi

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NB correzioni fattuali benvenute nei commenti sottostanti.

Possono sembrare tutti uguali in superficie. Se si controllano i programmi elettorali dei partiti o delle coalizioni che chiedono di essere votati alle prossime elezioni in Italia uno sarebbe perdonato se non riuscisse, leggendo ciascuno di essi individualmente, a identificare il partito o il gruppo che lo ha formulato. Si potrebbe commentare, in modo cinicamente Leibniziano, che sia un triste caso di identità degli indiscernibili. Tuttavia, ci sono alcune caratteristiche che, nel migliore dei mondi possibili (sì ancora Leibniz) fanno la differenza e permettono una valutazione comparativa.

I 4 documenti che si possono prendere in esame in modo esemplificativo hanno lunghezze molto diverse e se si guarda al numero di battute o parole la differenza è ancora più macroscopica. In ordine di lunghezza del formato pdf abbiamo:

a) M5S: 13 pp. 

b) Per l'Italia (centro-destra): 17 pp.

c) PD: 37 pp.

d) Azione - Italia Viva - Calenda: 68 pp.

Ecco quattro passi che si possono fare per valuarli.

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1) Controllare non che cosa è incluso ma che cosa è escluso.

Ad esempio, quali programmi non menzionano termini meno ovvi come

nuclear*? 

    a = 0/13

    b = 1/17

    c = 1/37

    d = 1/68

Ucraina?

    a = 0/13

    b = 1/17

    c = 3/37

    d = 0/68

sport?

    a = 0/13

    b = 2/17

    c = 12/37

    d = 7/68

La politica non riguarda ciò che vuoi, ma ciò a cui sei disposto a rinunciare per ciò che vuoi. Compromessi, bilanciamenti, e triage, questa è l'arte del governare.

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2) Controllare l'enfasi ricorrente su quello che è incluso.

Ad esempio, quante volte ricorre la parola "digital*"?

a = 7/13 

b = 3/17

c = 43/37

d = 24/68

Alla politica piace il "tutto compreso", ma non può includere tutto nella stessa quantità. Non è solo ciò che acquisti che indica chi sei veramente, ma anche la quantità di ciò che scegli di acquistare.

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3) Controllare l'ordine delle priorità "prioritarie".

Ad esempio, la prima priorità è

a = Fisco

b = Interesse nazionale e difesa della Patria (p maiuscola nel testo).

c = Sviluppo sostenibile e transizioni ecologica e digitale 

d = Zero tasse per i giovani che avviano un’attività imprenditoriale

Tutti i manifesti sembrano liste di desideri, ma l'ordine in cui vengono fatte le promesse (spesso irrealistiche) è cruciale. Svela quali sono le priorità che i politici credono siano primarie.

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4) Controllare la presenza del come.

Ad esempio, come verranno finanziate le "priorità primarie" appena viste? 

a = 0/13

b = 0/17

c = 0/37

d = ultima pagina, due paragrafi/68

I politici sono bravi a indicare che cosa vogliono perseguire (in pratica: qualsiasi cosa possa piacere all'elettorato), ma molto attenti a non dire come lo conseguiranno, assumendo che ci proveranno (tagli? tasse? eliminazione dei privilegi? più concorrenza? smantellamento di monopoli e lobby? più meritocrazia e meno favoritismi?). Se si eliminano i soliti nemici (evasione fiscale, chi può essere contrario a combatterla?) e le ricorrenti indicazioni generiche (risparmio sui costi attraverso misure di efficienza vaghe e non specificate), di solito non resta quasi nulla.

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